Denny Hamlin has finally given out the warning that many saw coming. He stated that Hendrick Motorsports seems to be rapidly chugging points and closing the gap, showing a lot of speed over recent race weekends.

Speaking about the recent form of the Chevrolet powerhouse on NASCAR Film Room with Eric Estepp, Hamlin said, “You know, I think that if I were an analyst, I would say that don't look now, but Hendrick is coming. I feel very confident that the Hendrick cars are very soon, I mean, you're seeing it with Larson,” he said.

He then added the stat-punching observation, “They've led more laps over these last, the Nashville, Michigan, now here. They're leading more laps than they were before.”

The reason that this warning is coming right now is that William Byron and Kyle Larson are both showing excellent pace. At Pocono alone, Kyle Larson led 24 laps and finished fifth, Chase Elliott led 9, and William Byron finished third.

This is the exact experience that Hamlin was pointing to: “While the finishes have still been meh, I still think that the speed is there. I saw it. I got to experience it.”

The statistics largely support Hamlin's view. Larson and Byron have repeatedly shown race-winning pace but remain winless, while Bowman has flashed speed with podium contention, including a third-place finish at Texas.

Elliott's victories at Martinsville and Texas account for all of Hendrick's wins in 2026. This directly showcases, as Hamlin points out, that the organisation has the speed, just not the results to match it. And being the team they are, they could gain from the races coming ahead.

However, despite not always converting speed into wins, there seems to be a silver lining to this, as the HMS drivers are managing to rack up points, proving consequential for the playoffs. Let's find out how.

Why playoff math could favor team Hendrick

The playoff maths may be quietly working in Hendrick Motorsports' favor more than the total win count suggests. Since every stage victory gives one playoff point and a race win awards five, those playoff points carry through each elimination round.

That means a driver with two wins and four stage wins enters the playoffs with 14 playoff points before a lap is even completed.

Chase Elliott already has two victories in 2026, giving him at least 10 playoff points before stage-win bonuses are counted. William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman are collecting stage points through their consistent speed.

With Elliott fourth, Larson sixth, and Byron 11th in the standings after Pocono, HMS has three drivers firmly inside the playoff field.

The playoff cushion math for Hendrick seems to be getting better if you consider the 67 laps Elliott led at Michigan, Byron's charge to within 3.017 seconds of Denny Hamlin at Pocono, and Larson's 24 laps led before finishing fifth.

This shows that even though they aren't winning as many races, HMS is quietly creeping forward with a possibly excellent shot at the playoffs.

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Written by

Uday Jakhar

Edited by

Suyashdeep Sason